8/30, 11:30am ET: The Week 1 CFP Winner Basket
Get up. It's GameDay.
No, but really, kinda awesome to finally have games to digest tonight and we can really get rolling with this whole thing. I've been trying to provide as much content as possible so that if you're like how I used to be (slow to get up to speed with the season rapidly approaching) you can get on the level of the rest of us in a hurry. The final piece of that puzzle is the futures I'm entering the season with. I don't do CFP winner like a traditional futures basket (equal to win amounts across the board) because I usually will try to take these and hedge multiple ones out (if you followed me for college hoops you know I did that a lot with K-State 200/1 and Texas Tech 200/1) for varying amounts. These are separate bets, but they're in the same market, so we'll include them together. I won't give a long description for each because I feel like I've been doing that for these teams all month. If you don't know why I like Oregon yet, for example, I don't know how to help you.
Before I list, two teams I want to watch very carefully going forward, but don't want yet: Auburn and Michigan. Both play impossible schedules, including brutal Week 1 games, and I am banking on the fact that even victories in primetime Week 1 matchups don't lower the odds tremendously. In Michigan's case it really shouldn't, because they're already 18/1 and they'd still have 5 extremely tough games left (Penn St, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, B10 title game). I love Michigan, but no thanks on that price right now. Auburn is interesting because they're favored in Week 1, yet their odds to win the CFP are much worse than Washington, who they're favored over. I think if I really like Auburn, they can be had a little later, or I can bet them individually against Georgia and Alabama when the time comes.
Anyway, away we go:
Ohio State +1000 (BOL): This number was available for a while, and now it's not. If you want to grab +775 at 5D or try to shop around to find an 8, there may be one left. I still think it's valuable, as the spreads in their games may reach astronomical levels if they're as good as I think they are. The game at Penn State may not be lined as small as it is in the look-aheads when we get to Week 5.
Michigan State +3500 (5D): The returning production is absolutely off-the-charts, again I'm down on Penn State, and the Spartans host their next 2 toughest games. Weakness in the B12 and Pac-12 record-wise could once again create a 2-teams-from-one-conference situation, and this division is the most likely to produce the 2nd team, so Ohio State and them are not mutually exclusive in this case.
Miami +5000 (5D): Favored in all 12, elite recruiting and only bad attrition at one position (defensive tackle). Mark Richt gets shat on by people all the time when he basically lost a coinflip to Alabama for a title shot. What are you saying about him if Aaron Murray doesn't throw underneath short of the end zone?
Florida +10000 (5D): Just seems a little high with a ceiling this enormous. The range of possible outcomes here is just insanely wide. 3-9 and everyone gets arrested? Sure. Beat Georgia? Sure.
Oregon +11000 (5D): I am tired of talking about this team. I don't even like them that much, I just love the schedule and the set-up, and a fully-healthy Herbert for a season would be incredible.
Miss State +12500 (5D): Absurd returning production. Auburn's more talented, but who would I rather have at current prices? Not even sure that's close given schedules.
This of course is just the starter kit. More to come throughout the season, as we learn more and more about the teams. Really should be a fun ride.