10/11: The NHL Shots on Goal Model
I figured I would put this in “The Notebook” for now, because I don’t think it should be put into practice by anyone. Also, it would clutter up the CFB picks in the “infinite scroll” slate page, and you’d have to go through like 100 hockey props to get to college football, and I doubt anyone really wants that right now. But the notebook was designed for zany ideas, and zaniness, here we come.
I built a really simple shots-on-goal model, using all the data from the games so far — shots for and against for all teams in regulation (this part was annoying, but that’s what the prop applies to) — and then used pretty basic math compared to league average to get to some projections.
Now, some warnings. Some teams have 1 played game….still. Their projections probably aren’t gonna be that great. The more games teams play, the more I think we can eventually MAYBE have an edge because 5D seems to post pretty similar numbers for every game, every night. These are 40-cent props at 5Dimes (meaning -120 each way), so a win-rate of about 55 percent is required to have any profit. That’s pretty big. But let’s see what we can do here, even if it’s in the hypothetical for now.
I’m going to use flat-betting for now, even though it makes no sense to do so, because it’s getting close to 7pm when about 8 games start. In the future I’ll adjust pricing to account for perceived edge. Basically, I’ll come back to this later and make it right.
For now, as a stop-gap solution there are about 60 shots in an average NHL game so far this year, so we’ll play total shots when it’s off by 5 percent (3 shots) one way or another, and we’ll play team vs. team when it’s off by 1.5 shots (average of 30 shots on goal per team, 5 percent of that).
I’ll be updating these throughout the night.
7p Vegas-Pittsburgh: Projected 58.93 shots on goal (VGK 34.62 vs. PIT 24.30, and yes I’m rounding)
Bets: Vegas +1.5 shots on goal -120 (1.2 to win 1), Total shots on goal under 63.5 -120 (1.2/1)
7p Columbus-Florida: Projected 63.01 shots on goal (CLB 29.6 vs. FLA 33.4)
Bets: Florida -1.5 shots on goal -120 (1.2/1) ((Total shots on goal listed at 64.5 u-140 = no play))
7p Colorado-Buffalo: Projected 65.66 shots on goal (COL 39.44 vs. BUF 26.22)
Bets: Colorado +1.5 shots on goal -140 (1.4/1) ((Total shots on goal listed at 63.5 o-120 = no play))
7p Washington-New Jersey **Devils have played 1 game and the shots on goal were CRAZY low, so probably not great stuff here, even compared to the rest* — Projected 48.82 shots on goal (WAS 21.01 vs. NJD 27.80)
Bets: New Jersey -2.5 shots on goal -120 (barely) (1.2/1), Total shots on goal **gulp* under 58.5 -120 (1.2/1)
7p San Jose-New York Rangers: Projected 68.55 shots on goal (SJ 40.64 vs. NYR 27.90)
Bets: SJ shots on goal (pk vs. NYR) -120 (1.2/1)…my god the difference there. Also, Total shots on goal over 63.5 -120 (1.2/1)
7p Edmonton-Boston **another game where one team (edmonton) has played only 1 game, yikes* — Projected 44.3 shots on goal (EDM 20.60 vs. BOS 23.71)
Bets: Total shots on goal under 62.5 (LOL) -120 (1.2/1)… ((Bruins -2.5 shots on goal -120 is a no play))
730p Vancouver-Tampa Bay **Tampa 1 game played* — Projected 58.35 shots on goal (VAN 28.75 vs. TB 29.60)
Bets: VAN shots on goal +5.5 -120 (1.2/1) ((Total shots on goal at 60.5 is a no play))
730p Toronto-Detroit — Projected 55.23 shots on goal (TOR 29.48 vs. DET 25.75)
Bets: TOR -1.5 shots on goal -140 (1.4/1) (this may reasonably be a pass with double the juice but for now w/e) Total shots on goal under 63.5 -120 (1.2/1)
730p Los Angeles-Montreal (the winner for “craziest one by far”) — Projected 54.11 shots on goal (LAK 16.05 vs. MON 38.06)
Bets: MON -3.5 shots on goal -120 (1.2/1, but oh it would be so much more with Kelly used), Total shots on goal under 61.5 -120 (1.2/1)
8p Winnipeg-Nashville — Projected 65.88 shots on goal (WPG 32.24 vs. NSH 33.63)
Bets: None! Wow. Nashville -2.5 and Total shots over 63.5 both no plays. There’s a first for today.
8p Calgary-St. Louis — Projected 61.54 shots on goal (CGY 28.44 vs. STL 33.09)
Bets: STL -2.5 -120 (just barely) (1.2/1 ((Total shots over 60.5 is a no play))
8p Chicago-Minnesota — Projected 64.93 shots on goal (CHI 42.28 vs. MIN 22.64)
Bets: CHI -2.5 -120 (1.2/1) ((Total shots over 62.5 is a no play))