8/24, 7pm ET: The Final 2018 Heisman basket
After writing what seems like 10,000 words on the topic (and believe me, it was really fun to do so), I wanted to just post what I ended up going with as my final futures basket for this market. There are a few guys that are really close calls for me to add based on price and likelihood of team success...I'd say the most glaring omissions that I think could hurt me are Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Jonathan Taylor. I also thought about adding Jarrett Stidham prior to a show-out game in Week 1, but ended up passing because I really don't think Auburn can get to a high win number very often this year (they can do it, just not with great frequency).
In the end, some of the more eligible quarterbacks had to be excluded because otherwise the payout of the group was going to drop to a really low multiplier no matter who won, and this just isn't a market where you can have EVERYONE who can win. Another important thing to note here: the importance of shopping around. The good news is these aren't prices I grabbed 5 weeks ago and am putting here now, which do you no good. These are all available as of this article being published.
Will Grier +1600 (BetOnline)
Trace McSorley +1650 (Heritage)
Dwayne Haskins +1650 (5Dimes)
D'Andre Swift +4000 (everywhere)
Rodney Anderson +5000 (everywhere)
Nick Fitzgerald +6000 (everywhere)
I'll probably mess around and add more as the season goes on, but in terms of prices that I think have a lot of room to drop, that's the list I'm going with right now. You'll note the lack of total longshots (which have a rich history of doing well)...I think this could be the type of season where none of the preseason longshots do well, but where the race is wide open enough that someone who is added to the markets in the first couple weeks at long odds could emerge and do well. Like, for example, if Shawn Robinson (QB, TCU) has an insane first week against an FCS team, he may get listed at like 50/1 or higher, and then in week 2 they'd face SMU's leaky defense. Or if we get more clarity on QB situations in Alabama and Clemson, or RB situations in Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State, where it's possible it's not as much of a committee approach as we thought, action may be warranted.
Regardless, this is what I'm starting with, feel free to add to it as you wish! Enjoy the games tomorrow.