8/21, 2pm ET: Week 0 Bets
Hello everyone! I didn't really get to a computer as quickly as I wanted to get these out before lines potentially move, but I wanted to share some thoughts on the Week 0 games. Originally I had planned on doing that Thursday, but considering the markets, let's just move that up to "right now." Here are my thoughts on both FBS vs. FBS games (I am passing any FCS game this year unless there is something really wacky going on with that market, and I'm not even really sure what the definition of "wacky" would be.
Hawaii vs Colorado State (-14/57.5)
I pray that in some alternate universe where the schedules are different, Colorado State is playing someone else, and that version of me can happily bet CSU's opponent at basically any # and feel awesome about it. There are so many reasons to fade CSU in this spot, it's pretty wild. Turnover everywhere -- new coordinators, new QB (Washington transfer Carta-Samuels), new RB, new WR corps (including a Tennessee transfer who I am convinced still might not be entirely healthy at WR1), losses on the OL, etc. -- and naturally when you have that much newness in your program the one thing you're dying for is your coach to be hospitalized while the preparation for Week 1 continues. The biggest problem is, there is such a difference in talent on the field, and Hawaii has so many "newness" problems of their own, I don't think they can be reliably bet in this spot. An average Mike Bobo offense from his time here still scores almost at will on Hawaii, and that's a problem. It's also nearly-impossible to project what we can get from Hawaii offensively in this game, with both a new QB (their projected starter transferred to Ok State in the offseason) and a possible change to a more uptempo style. Rather than try to get cute with a fade CSU angle in this spot I'm just going to pass. I will say that one thing to avoid is using any of the data from their meeting last year (won comfortably by the Rams), as that game was an excellent schedule spot for CSU (getting a bye week to prepare, and because of travel/jetlag to the islands), and a horrible spot for HawaiI (overtime game the week before on the road at altitude in Wyoming), not to mention the skill position players for the Rams will be different as well. I came into this season thinking Hawaii might reasonably be the worst FBS team, and I see no reason to deviate even with their opponent having sketchy game-week issues. I would lean Hawaii at +14, but for me this is a pass.
Wyoming vs New Mexico State (+3.5/46)
I'll have a full write-up on this game for the Action Network later in the week, but at the risk of the # moving away from me, I wanted to at least get out there that I'm playing New Mexico State +3.5 as well as Under 46 in this game, neither with any more volume than the other (as of now). I don't want to replicate content I'm producing for another entity, so I'll just say that there are a lot of factors I think are being either ignored or overlooked (some of them recent) that make a spread over 3 somewhat illogical here. More to come.
Full link to Action Network piece here.