The Slate

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THERE will be plays.

That was the philosophy from Day 1 on my Twitter account, and it will be no different here. I will be making bets, and you will know what they are.  The Slate is the place where the bets live.  You can track them week by week.  You will see them here, in this space.  You can bet them.  You can laugh at them. You can fade them.  The goal is for you to have as much fun watching games and as much fun betting on these games as I do, so however this information helps you do that, so be it.  

For those who are "in the know," this is also the place you'll find the #Stinktown parlays, a rare collection of only the smelliest and most profitable underdog bets.

 
 

Championship Week! Aka Week 14 Bets

It is insane how fast the season goes. Seems like just yesterday I was trying to convince everyone Oregon and Mississippi State were going to be really good, and now here we are. Here are things I am betting this weekend:

Friday:

8pm Washington -5

Saturday:

1230pm Texas-OU over 77.5

4pm Georgia +14 -120 / under 63.5

8pm NW-Ohio State under 61

Week 13 Bets

Aaaand I am back to the site. Obviously fewer games to pick from, and there are some tighter numbers later in the year, so much like the last 2 weeks, fewer picks/week. Baylor-Texas Tech is actually a game that will decide BOTH team’s win totals for me, so I am absolutely not picking it. There is no way to get my bias out of the handicapping other than just using straight model output (which I never like to do in this sport).

Anyway, here are bets:

12pm Ohio State +4.5

12pm Georgia -16.5

1230p Wake Forest +11

330p Penn State -13.5

330p Arizona +1.5

8pm Notre Dame -11

Week 12 Bets

Well, the “less is more” philosophy worked last week, and although it’s not unintentional, I have fewer bets this week as well. Hopefully we can get the same results.

12p Minnesota -2

12p Ohio State -14.5

12p Nebraska +2

12p Wake Forest +6.5

1:30p Colorado +7

3:30p Tennessee +6.5

4p Indiana +28.5

7:30p Cal +2

8p UCF -7 -115

Week 11 Bets

Hello again from breakeven purgatory. Here are some things I’m betting on Saturday:

12p Ole Miss Texas A&M over 66.5

12p Kansas +10.5

12p Vanderbilt +17

12:20p UNC +10.5

2:p UCLA +13.5

3:30p VT +3

3:30p Tennessee +5.5

3:30p Oklahoma State +21

Week 10 Bets

Well, I continue to be slightly above .500 and almost dead even for the season, but considering the volume of plays there’s still plenty of time to turn this closing line value and “expert” analysis into a healthy profit. I have really had a great time this year spending the amount of time on each game that I do. College football is the best. Anyway, here are my bets. There may be more Saturday.

Tuesday

None

Wednesday

None

Thursday

None

Friday

None

Saturday

12p Baylor +7.5

12p East Carolina +13

1215p Georgia Tech -6

2p Texas State +6

2p Wyoming -13.5

3p Georgia Southern -7.5

3p Southern Miss +3

330p Texas -2.5

330p Navy +14

330p Purdue -2.5

3:45p Virginia Tech +2

7p SMU +14.5

715p Notre Dame -10

730p UTSA +22

730p FAU +2.5

730p Louisiana Tech +23.5

8p Texas Tech +13.5

8p LSU +14.5 

Week 9 Bets

I can’t believe it’s Week 9 already. Despite basically treading water record-wise, maybe we can turn a break-even season into a profitable one late in the year. Or maybe we can’t. Let’s find out!

Thursday

Ohio -10 / Game over 64.5

Toledo +6.5

Friday

LT/FAU over 58

Wyoming +2

Saturday

12pm UCONN +4.5

2pm Southern Miss -7

3pm Oregon State +24

3:30pm Old Dominion +5

3:30pm Penn State -5.5

3:30pm Florida +7

3:30pm SMU +8.5

4pm Missouri -7

4pm Rice +30.5

7pm Boise State -9.5

7pm Arkansas State -3

730pm Western Kentucky +3.5 -115

8pm Navy +24

1030pm Hawaii +25.5

Week 8 Bets

A little late getting this created, but with the craziness of the NBA’s opening week I just never came back around to populate this page.

Here are bets! Yay bets!

Thursday

None

Friday

None

Saturday

12pm Cincinnati +3.5

12pm Iowa -8.5

12pm Auburn -3.5

1220pm UNC +10.5

2pm Bowling Green +16.5

2:30pm Marshall +3

3pm Eastern Michigan -3

330pm Navy +12

330pm Indiana +14.5

4pm Memphis +10

7pm Texas State +10.5

730pm North Texas ML +100

730pm Kentucky -12.5

8pm USC +7

Week 7 Bets

After an 8-6 Saturday and an 8-8 week overall, we have returned to the world of college football single-game markets to test our mettle. One consistent theme in some of my work last week was the inability to properly quantify some players. Marshall’s QB situation was a glaring example of that, and it’s possible I should have accounted for some drop-off. Bryce Love would be another, although that final score couldn’t be more misleading. There are plenty of very significant injuries across the games this week — QB injuries at Tulsa, Marshall (again), Troy, UNLV, Nevada, South Carolina (although Bentley is going to play by all accounts), Hawaii, Toledo, Ohio, and Navy should affect what you are betting and at what # a team is valuable. My spreadsheet thinks I should be betting like 50 pct of my bankroll on Troy, for example, but that would seem foolish given what we ACTUALLY know. Anyways, here are some bets I’ve made:

Thursday

None

Friday

USF -7 -115

Saturday

12p Florida -7

12p Tennessee +15.5

12p Rutgers +25.5

12p Northwestern -3.5

12p Minnesota +29.5

12p Akron +11

1220p Duke +3

1230p Louisville +13

330p Washington -3

330p Texas A&M -2.5

330p San Jose State +15.5

330p Georgia -7.5

7p Houston -16

7p Virginia Tech -5.5

7p UCLA +6.5

7p Miami -7

1015p Hawaii +11

1030p Wyoming +18

Week 6 Bets

Another week of college football is almost here. Last week there were very few games I liked compared to the norm, just the way the numbers go sometimes. So far, this week is looking like it may be more active, but need to wait and see on several factors. As always, will be updating throughout the week! Thanks for your support.

Thursday

8pm Tulsa Houston over 69.5

Friday

730pm Marshall -4

Saturday

12pm Kansas +29

12pm Michigan -17

12pm Rutgers +6

12pm Oklahoma -7

1220pm Syracuse -3 -115

3pm Northern Illinois -2.5 -115

330pm Florida +2.5

330pm Clemson -19

330pm Oklahoma State -9

330pm USF -14.5

330pm Toledo -22

7pm UTSA +2.5

730pm Miss State +3.5

1030pm Stanford -3.5

Week 5 Bets

I hate this week. I hate almost all the games. I may change my mind, though. I dunno. Here are some picks.

Friday — Tulane +14.5

2pm Georgia State +7

2pm UMASS +13.5 / Game over 68.5

330pm Louisville +7 -115

330pm South Alabama +24.5

330pm Tennessee +31

330pm Kansas State +8.5

730pm Marshall -4

830pm Washington -17

Week 4 Bets

One thing about wanting to do handicapping and all this stuff is you really need to enjoy the grind. I went 3-8 last week and my first thought was “I can’t wait to dig into next week’s games.” It’s gotta be fun for you, and if it isn’t, you’re going to burn out so fast after poor results. Enjoy the process, that’s the best advice I can give.

I am now back to about .500 this season, but seeing as how I’ve gotten the best of the number so often, I still think I’m making pretty good bets here. Let’s see if the process pays off going forward still.

Saturday

**Gameday add: Texas Tech +14.5

12pm Nebraska Michigan under 49

12pm Maryland -3 +100

12pm Iowa State -18.5

12pm Ohio +9.5

12pm Toledo -10

12pm Notre Dame -6.5

1220pm UNC +3.5

2pm Western Michigan -7.5 -103

3pm Bowling Green +6.5

330pm Kansas State +16

330pm Texas A&M +26

330pm Clemson -16

330pm FIU +26.5

330pm Old Dominion +27.5 / Game under 51.5

4pm South Carolina -2.5

7pm Tennessee +4.5

7pm Marshall +5.5

7pm UTSA -7 -115

7pm Army +31

830pm Wisconsin -3

#stinktown parlay: Marshall +175 / UNC +150 / Tennessee +160

Week 3 Bets

Now that I’m not incredibly sick, and not far behind in my work, a college football week can move with it’s usual efficiency. Below are the bets I have made for this week, and will be updating throughout:

Friday

7pm Memphis -26.5

Saturday

12pm Army -6

12pm Kent State +35

12pm Georgia Southern +32.5

330pm Auburn -9.5

330pm UTSA +21.5

330pm South Florida -10

7pm Tulsa ML +103

7pm Ole Miss +21

7pm Nevada -3

8pm New Mexico State +3.5

10pm Washington Utah under 47.5

Week 2 Bets

As I battle illness, let us once again set off into degenerate waters.

Saturday:

12p New Mexico +35.5

12p Miss State -7 (1x) and -10 (1x)

12p Duke +3

12p Eastern Michigan +16.5

330p Ball State +34.5

330p Arkansas St +36

7p Clemson-Texas A&M under 54.5

7p Southern Miss -5

730p Old Dominion -2

8p Penn State -9

830p USC-Stanford under 56.5

1015pm Connecticut +31.5

The wee hours: Rice +17.5


#stinktown: Liberty +245 / Air Force +275 / Kansas +160...I wanna add Rice +600, but whatever, you do what you want.  Even fewer good options than last week IMO, and last week the night slate was where all the value was at apparently.

Week 1 Bets

It's about time I created this document over in this section, so it can be updating continuously with what I have going in the Week 1 games.  I'll just edit/add as the week goes on.  These are all also available on the Sports Action app, where you can follow me and get push notifications when I pick stuff.

Thursday:

8pm NW Purdue o51 and o 51.5 (I did a 1/2 unit on each, the o51 actually popped after the 51.5 on Tuesday weirdly enough).  You may see these numbers again closer to kickoff.

Friday:

6pm Syracuse Western Michigan over 66

930pm Colorado State +7.5


Saturday:

12pm Coastal Carolina +29.5 (write-up for Action Network available)

12pm Texas State Rutgers under 47

12pm Ohio State -38

12pm Texas-Maryland over 52.5 (BetOnline roguey #)

12pm Illinois -16.5 / game over 55.5

1pm UMASS +17.5

330pm UNLV +26.5

330pm NIU +10 /  NIU-Iowa under 47.5

6pm Boise State -10

730pm SMU-North Texas over 71

8pm Akron Nebraska under 55.5

8pm Alabama -24

Forgot to add last night: Marshall Miami (OH) under 51 (don't worry, it lost)

 

#Stinktown Parlay

NIU +315 / James Madison +335 / Ole Miss +120 = about 40/1

 

Monday

Florida State -7

 

8/21, 2pm ET: Week 0 Bets

Hello everyone!  I didn't really get to a computer as quickly as I wanted to get these out before lines potentially move, but I wanted to share some thoughts on the Week 0 games.  Originally I had planned on doing that Thursday, but considering the markets, let's just move that up to "right now." Here are my thoughts on both FBS vs. FBS games (I am passing any FCS game this year unless there is something really wacky going on with that market, and I'm not even really sure what the definition of "wacky" would be.

Hawaii vs Colorado State (-14/57.5)

I pray that in some alternate universe where the schedules are different, Colorado State is playing someone else, and that version of me can happily bet CSU's opponent at basically any # and feel awesome about it.  There are so many reasons to fade CSU in this spot, it's pretty wild. Turnover everywhere -- new coordinators, new QB (Washington transfer Carta-Samuels), new RB, new WR corps (including a Tennessee transfer who I am convinced still might not be entirely healthy at WR1), losses on the OL, etc. -- and naturally when you have that much newness in your program the one thing you're dying for is your coach to be hospitalized while the preparation for Week 1 continues.  The biggest problem is, there is such a difference in talent on the field, and Hawaii has so many "newness" problems of their own, I don't think they can be reliably bet in this spot.  An average Mike Bobo offense from his time here still scores almost at will on Hawaii, and that's a problem.  It's also nearly-impossible to project what we can get from Hawaii offensively in this game, with both a new QB (their projected starter transferred to Ok State in the offseason) and a possible change to a more uptempo style.  Rather than try to get cute with a fade CSU angle in this spot I'm just going to pass.  I will say that one thing to avoid is using any of the data from their meeting last year (won comfortably by the Rams), as that game was an excellent schedule spot for CSU (getting a bye week to prepare, and because of travel/jetlag to the islands), and a horrible spot for HawaiI (overtime game the week before on the road at altitude in Wyoming), not to mention the skill position players for the Rams will be different as well.  I came into this season thinking Hawaii might reasonably be the worst FBS team, and I see no reason to deviate even with their opponent having sketchy game-week issues. I would lean Hawaii at +14, but for me this is a pass.

Wyoming vs New Mexico State (+3.5/46)

I'll have a full write-up on this game for the Action Network later in the week, but at the risk of the # moving away from me, I wanted to at least get out there that I'm playing New Mexico State +3.5 as well as Under 46 in this game, neither with any more volume than the other (as of now).  I don't want to replicate content I'm producing for another entity, so I'll just say that there are a lot of factors I think are being either ignored or overlooked (some of them recent) that make a spread over 3 somewhat illogical here.  More to come.

Full link to Action Network piece here.