8/27, 11:55pm ET: Pac 12 Win Totals

Got a tiny window of time again, so figured why not.  Only one here, I have Cal over at better #'s, and at 6.5 you are welcome to fire, it's just not as valuable as it once was.  Still like Cal a lot this year though.  Arizona over would be my next favorite one, solely because of the schedule, but Arizona is a team that's actually been bet a lot in many forms already, and they just aren't talented enough to justify the price you'll be paying for them in most forms. Why only a mention of overs? Because wins are probably coming out of USC, Washington State and Arizona State's programs, Oregon State and Colorado remain bad, and UCLA has too tough a schedule.  Those opinions aren't really actionable because the numbers already reflect the opinions.  Anyway, those wins need somewhere to go. 

 

Oregon over 9 +115

I'm going to take a shot here with a better price, and 8.5 -130 to -145 available in a couple other places at last check. I've talked about their schedule to death, but for the purposes of this piece I will now revive it, talk about it again, and then we can finally bury it for good.

They will open the season 3-0, congrats to them already on that incredible start.  All 3 games are at home, meaning between now and the Stanford game in Week 4, they will travel away from Eugene on exactly 0 days.  An entire month to essentially get details just right for the trip in by the Cardinal, who will have already battled San Diego State and USC.  What a spot.  The game against Washington is improved not only because it's at home but because Oregon has a bye going in, and Washington is on back-to-back travel.  Next toughest games are at Utah and at Arizona, both teams the Ducks are more talented than, and with Arizona, by a reasonably wide margin, Tate notwithstanding. 

Unlike basically all Oregon teams from the last 20 years, the defense will be incredibly reliable with big upside, and the skill position players will be a question mark.  What crazy, new world is this? Justin Herbert's health is the biggest question mark.  But I think looking at projected talent, returning production on both sides, and schedule, this bet is kind of a no-brainer.