10/16: NHL Shots on Goal for Tuesday

Hello again!

I wanted to share not only some projections for today, but also updated facts and figures for how the model is doing so far. I am primarily interested in how it performs vs. the total shots on goal prop at 5Dimes and also the team vs. team shots on goal prop at 5Dimes. I have simulated everything from the 11th-15th (basically the day we started until now), using bet-sizing in proportion to the amount of perceived edge (so 10.84% edge, bet 10.84 at -120). I played anything in the total shots that was >3 percent edge, and anything in the team vs. team that was >5 percent edge. Again, this is really just an experiment for now, but we all love a good prop bet.

Here are the results entering today:

Overall: 25-21, 529.84 bet, 76.97 profit, 14.527% ROI

Team vs team: 17-12, 428.39 bet, 92.69 profit, 21.63% ROI

Total shots: 8-9, 101.45 bet, -15.72 profit, -15.49% ROI

So obviously, a few things stand out. Total shots isn’t going well. Is this very surprising? The data points we have for so many teams are still so few (some teams have only played 3 games still) that really, we’re probably just getting straight-up bad projections. I am probably going to do rolling previous-10-games data to do the projections going forward, so when we get to 10 games played I’ll really start caring.

Although the sample on team vs. team is also tiny, it is at least POSSIBLE that despite the total shot projections being inaccurate, the differences between teams are still being expressed OK, or at least, better than the total shots.

Really, we know nothing, still. Like, at all. But I’ll keep gathering data and we’ll see how this goes.

Anyway, as for tonight, here are projections and bet-sizing for what I’m running:

Dallas (30.34 projected SOG) vs New Jersey (30.69)

Under 66.5 -120, 4.27 to win 3.56 (if you wanna actually bet this, just use a multiplier…or don’t)

No bet on team vs team

Colorado (34.30) vs NY Rangers (32.84) —

Over 62.5 -120, 3.58/2.98

Colorado +2.5 SOG -120, 6.10/5.08

Florida (36.61) vs Philly (31.87) —

No bet on total

Florida +2.5 -120 10.84/9.03

Vancouver (27.72) vs. Pittsburgh (29.21) —

Under 62.5 -120, 4.64/3.87

Vancouver +5.5 -120, 7.75/6.46

Carolina (43.72) vs. Tampa Bay (24.62) —

No bet on total

Carolina -2.5 -120 22.20/18.50

Arizona (43.17) vs. Minnesota (22.09) —

No bet on total

Arizona pk -120 29.35/24.46

Edmonton (25.14) vs. Winnipeg (27.61) —

Under 62.5 -115 8.39/7.30

No bet on team vs. team

Buffalo (20.02) vs. Vegas (35.6) —

Under 60.5 -120 4.18/3.48

Vegas -6.5 -120 17.86/14.88

Let’s see how this goes. I doubt Buffalo will have anywhere close to 20(!!!) shots on goal, but hey, stranger things have happened.